Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases are deaths are doubling.
  • The way to read the plot is that the darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.

Plots of cases

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

Plots of deaths

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state casesPerMillion
##  1:                 New York        10,989.0
##  2:               New Jersey         7,996.0
##  3:                Louisiana         4,721.0
##  4:            Massachusetts         4,340.0
##  5:              Connecticut         4,138.0
##  6:     District of Columbia         3,113.0
##  7:             Rhode Island         3,068.0
##  8:                 Michigan         2,792.0
##  9:             Pennsylvania         2,093.0
## 10:                 Delaware         2,068.0
## 11:                 Illinois         1,940.0
## 12:                 Maryland         1,659.0
## 13:                 Colorado         1,437.0
## 14:               Washington         1,416.0
## 15:                  Georgia         1,373.0
## 16:                  Indiana         1,330.0
## 17:             South Dakota         1,320.0
## 18:                  Vermont         1,216.0
## 19:              Mississippi         1,128.0
## 20:                  Florida         1,048.0
## 21:                   Nevada         1,042.0
## 22:                  Alabama           864.0
## 23:                Tennessee           860.0
## 24:                    Idaho           843.0
## 25:            New Hampshire           837.0
## 26:                 Missouri           797.0
## 27:                     Utah           795.0
## 28:                 Virginia           761.0
## 29:           South Carolina           710.0
## 30:               New Mexico           707.0
## 31:               California           686.0
## 32:                     Ohio           666.0
## 33:                Wisconsin           639.0
## 34:                     Iowa           632.0
## 35:                    Maine           572.0
## 36:                 Oklahoma           571.0
## 37:                    Texas           555.0
## 38:                  Arizona           544.0
## 39:                 Arkansas           529.0
## 40:                   Kansas           515.0
## 41:                 Nebraska           514.0
## 42:                 Kentucky           513.0
## 43:                  Wyoming           497.0
## 44:           North Carolina           488.0
## 45:             North Dakota           478.0
## 46:            West Virginia           404.0
## 47:                   Alaska           397.0
## 48:                   Oregon           394.0
## 49:                  Montana           378.0
## 50:                   Hawaii           370.0
## 51:                Minnesota           320.0
## 52:              Puerto Rico           304.0
## 53:           American Samoa            <NA>
## 54:                     Guam            <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands            <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands            <NA>
##                        state casesPerMillion

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state casesNewPerMillion
##  1:                 New York                429
##  2:               New Jersey                344
##  3:              Connecticut                254
##  4:            Massachusetts                214
##  5:             Rhode Island                184
##  6:             South Dakota                165
##  7:     District of Columbia                152
##  8:                 Delaware                133
##  9:                 Michigan                113
## 10:             Pennsylvania                100
## 11:                 Maryland                 99
## 12:                 Illinois                 98
## 13:                Louisiana                 97
## 14:                  Georgia                 77
## 15:              Mississippi                 64
## 16:                 Colorado                 56
## 17:                  Indiana                 50
## 18:                 Virginia                 47
## 19:                  Alabama                 44
## 20:                     Iowa                 43
## 21:                  Florida                 41
## 22:                 Missouri                 39
## 23:                   Nevada                 38
## 24:            New Hampshire                 37
## 25:               New Mexico                 37
## 26:                 Arkansas                 35
## 27:                Tennessee                 35
## 28:                    Maine                 33
## 29:                     Ohio                 33
## 30:                 Nebraska                 32
## 31:               California                 31
## 32:                    Texas                 26
## 33:                     Utah                 25
## 34:                 Kentucky                 24
## 35:             North Dakota                 24
## 36:                 Oklahoma                 24
## 37:           South Carolina                 21
## 38:                Wisconsin                 21
## 39:            West Virginia                 20
## 40:                  Arizona                 19
## 41:           North Carolina                 19
## 42:                   Kansas                 18
## 43:                  Vermont                 17
## 44:               Washington                 16
## 45:                    Idaho                 15
## 46:                Minnesota                 11
## 47:                   Oregon                 10
## 48:                  Wyoming                 10
## 49:                   Alaska                  9
## 50:              Puerto Rico                  8
## 51:                   Hawaii                  6
## 52:                  Montana                  5
## 53:           American Samoa               <NA>
## 54:                     Guam               <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands               <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands               <NA>
##                        state casesNewPerMillion

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsPerMillion
##  1:                 New York              595
##  2:               New Jersey              355
##  3:              Connecticut              243
##  4:                Louisiana              237
##  5:                 Michigan              192
##  6:            Massachusetts              160
##  7:     District of Columbia              102
##  8:             Rhode Island               82
##  9:                 Illinois               75
## 10:               Washington               75
## 11:             Pennsylvania               65
## 12:                  Indiana               64
## 13:                 Colorado               61
## 14:                 Maryland               57
## 15:                  Georgia               53
## 16:                  Vermont               48
## 17:                 Delaware               47
## 18:                   Nevada               44
## 19:              Mississippi               40
## 20:                 Oklahoma               31
## 21:                Wisconsin               31
## 22:                     Ohio               30
## 23:                  Florida               28
## 24:                 Kentucky               27
## 25:                   Kansas               26
## 26:                 Missouri               26
## 27:                  Alabama               25
## 28:            New Hampshire               23
## 29:               California               22
## 30:                    Idaho               22
## 31:                 Virginia               22
## 32:           South Carolina               20
## 33:                Tennessee               20
## 34:                  Arizona               19
## 35:                    Maine               17
## 36:               New Mexico               17
## 37:                     Iowa               16
## 38:                Minnesota               15
## 39:              Puerto Rico               15
## 40:                   Oregon               13
## 41:                    Texas               13
## 42:           North Carolina               12
## 43:                 Arkansas               11
## 44:                 Nebraska               11
## 45:             North Dakota               11
## 46:                   Alaska                9
## 47:                   Hawaii                6
## 48:                  Montana                6
## 49:             South Dakota                6
## 50:                     Utah                6
## 51:            West Virginia                6
## 52:                  Wyoming                3
## 53:           American Samoa             <NA>
## 54:                     Guam             <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands             <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands             <NA>
##                        state deathsPerMillion

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)

##                        state deathsNewPerMillion
##  1:                 New York                  37
##  2:               New Jersey                  30
##  3:              Connecticut                  29
##  4:                Louisiana                  18
##  5:            Massachusetts                  17
##  6:                 Michigan                  14
##  7:     District of Columbia                  10
##  8:             Pennsylvania                   8
##  9:             Rhode Island                   7
## 10:                 Illinois                   6
## 11:                 Maryland                   6
## 12:                  Georgia                   4
## 13:                  Indiana                   4
## 14:                 Colorado                   3
## 15:                 Delaware                   3
## 16:                     Ohio                   3
## 17:                  Alabama                   2
## 18:                  Florida                   2
## 19:                    Idaho                   2
## 20:                   Kansas                   2
## 21:              Mississippi                   2
## 22:                 Missouri                   2
## 23:                   Nevada                   2
## 24:            New Hampshire                   2
## 25:                 Oklahoma                   2
## 26:                 Virginia                   2
## 27:               Washington                   2
## 28:                Wisconsin                   2
## 29:                  Arizona                   1
## 30:               California                   1
## 31:                     Iowa                   1
## 32:                 Kentucky                   1
## 33:                    Maine                   1
## 34:                Minnesota                   1
## 35:               New Mexico                   1
## 36:           North Carolina                   1
## 37:           South Carolina                   1
## 38:                Tennessee                   1
## 39:                    Texas                   1
## 40:                  Vermont                   1
## 41:                  Wyoming                   1
## 42:                   Alaska                   0
## 43:                 Arkansas                   0
## 44:                   Hawaii                   0
## 45:                  Montana                   0
## 46:                 Nebraska                   0
## 47:             North Dakota                   0
## 48:                   Oregon                   0
## 49:              Puerto Rico                   0
## 50:             South Dakota                   0
## 51:                     Utah                   0
## 52:            West Virginia                   0
## 53:           American Samoa                <NA>
## 54:                     Guam                <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands                <NA>
## 56:           Virgin Islands                <NA>
##                        state deathsNewPerMillion

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##          county          state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:    New York       New York          72,636          1         99
##  2:    Rockland       New York          26,011          2         99
##  3: Westchester       New York          21,651          3         99
##  4:      Blaine          Idaho          20,112          4         99
##  5:      Nassau       New York          19,688          5         99
##  6:    Davidson      Tennessee           2,149        164         94
##  7:    Richland South Carolina           1,318        353         88
##  8:      Pierce     Washington           1,136        422         86
##  9:        York South Carolina             491       1086         65
## 10:      Orange     California             433       1230         60

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.

##        county          state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
##  1:  New York       New York            5,044          1         99
##  2:   Terrell        Georgia            1,289          2         99
##  3:  Randolph        Georgia            1,033          3         99
##  4: Dougherty        Georgia              955          4         99
##  5:    Nassau       New York              948          5         99
##  6:    Pierce     Washington               31        599         80
##  7:  Richland South Carolina               29        637         79
##  8:  Davidson      Tennessee               26        689         78
##  9:      York South Carolina               11        974         69
## 10:    Orange     California                7       1028         67

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons