Covid Report for Family
April 16, 2020
Background
Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020
- This page shows COVID data broken down into regions that affect our family. It pulls from publicly available raw data from the NY Times, which is reported daily. It’s on a one-day lag, so when you see this report, the most recent day included will be that reported the day prior.
- The table of content above summarizes the major sections and can be used to jump to those sections.
- Each major section is then divided into tabs to allow you to more easily shuffle between geographies and metrics.
- More detailed descriptions and context can be found in each section.
Growth rates
Heat maps
- The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
- The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases are deaths are doubling.
- The way to read the plot is that the darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
- The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
Plots of cases
- This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
- There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
- Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
- For total cases, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total cases can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new cases, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
U.S.
Our states
Plots of deaths
- This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
- There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
- Each of these two lines is a rolling three-day average of daily growth rates for that particular metric.
- For total deaths, the trendlines will be a bit smoother and more consistent. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero because total deaths can never go down. We at least want them to get as close to zero as possible.
- For new deaths, the lines are a bit bumpier, in particular for states. While the trends aren’t as smooth, we want to watch for them to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis and that we’re on the other side of the “apex.”
U.S.
Our states
By population rankings
This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.
States
- This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
- For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
- We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.
Total confirmed cases
Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
## state casesPerMillion
## 1: New York 10,989.0
## 2: New Jersey 7,996.0
## 3: Louisiana 4,721.0
## 4: Massachusetts 4,340.0
## 5: Connecticut 4,138.0
## 6: District of Columbia 3,113.0
## 7: Rhode Island 3,068.0
## 8: Michigan 2,792.0
## 9: Pennsylvania 2,093.0
## 10: Delaware 2,068.0
## 11: Illinois 1,940.0
## 12: Maryland 1,659.0
## 13: Colorado 1,437.0
## 14: Washington 1,416.0
## 15: Georgia 1,373.0
## 16: Indiana 1,330.0
## 17: South Dakota 1,320.0
## 18: Vermont 1,216.0
## 19: Mississippi 1,128.0
## 20: Florida 1,048.0
## 21: Nevada 1,042.0
## 22: Alabama 864.0
## 23: Tennessee 860.0
## 24: Idaho 843.0
## 25: New Hampshire 837.0
## 26: Missouri 797.0
## 27: Utah 795.0
## 28: Virginia 761.0
## 29: South Carolina 710.0
## 30: New Mexico 707.0
## 31: California 686.0
## 32: Ohio 666.0
## 33: Wisconsin 639.0
## 34: Iowa 632.0
## 35: Maine 572.0
## 36: Oklahoma 571.0
## 37: Texas 555.0
## 38: Arizona 544.0
## 39: Arkansas 529.0
## 40: Kansas 515.0
## 41: Nebraska 514.0
## 42: Kentucky 513.0
## 43: Wyoming 497.0
## 44: North Carolina 488.0
## 45: North Dakota 478.0
## 46: West Virginia 404.0
## 47: Alaska 397.0
## 48: Oregon 394.0
## 49: Montana 378.0
## 50: Hawaii 370.0
## 51: Minnesota 320.0
## 52: Puerto Rico 304.0
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesPerMillion
New confirmed cases
Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state casesNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 429
## 2: New Jersey 344
## 3: Connecticut 254
## 4: Massachusetts 214
## 5: Rhode Island 184
## 6: South Dakota 165
## 7: District of Columbia 152
## 8: Delaware 133
## 9: Michigan 113
## 10: Pennsylvania 100
## 11: Maryland 99
## 12: Illinois 98
## 13: Louisiana 97
## 14: Georgia 77
## 15: Mississippi 64
## 16: Colorado 56
## 17: Indiana 50
## 18: Virginia 47
## 19: Alabama 44
## 20: Iowa 43
## 21: Florida 41
## 22: Missouri 39
## 23: Nevada 38
## 24: New Hampshire 37
## 25: New Mexico 37
## 26: Arkansas 35
## 27: Tennessee 35
## 28: Maine 33
## 29: Ohio 33
## 30: Nebraska 32
## 31: California 31
## 32: Texas 26
## 33: Utah 25
## 34: Kentucky 24
## 35: North Dakota 24
## 36: Oklahoma 24
## 37: South Carolina 21
## 38: Wisconsin 21
## 39: West Virginia 20
## 40: Arizona 19
## 41: North Carolina 19
## 42: Kansas 18
## 43: Vermont 17
## 44: Washington 16
## 45: Idaho 15
## 46: Minnesota 11
## 47: Oregon 10
## 48: Wyoming 10
## 49: Alaska 9
## 50: Puerto Rico 8
## 51: Hawaii 6
## 52: Montana 5
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state casesNewPerMillion
Total deaths
Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
## state deathsPerMillion
## 1: New York 595
## 2: New Jersey 355
## 3: Connecticut 243
## 4: Louisiana 237
## 5: Michigan 192
## 6: Massachusetts 160
## 7: District of Columbia 102
## 8: Rhode Island 82
## 9: Illinois 75
## 10: Washington 75
## 11: Pennsylvania 65
## 12: Indiana 64
## 13: Colorado 61
## 14: Maryland 57
## 15: Georgia 53
## 16: Vermont 48
## 17: Delaware 47
## 18: Nevada 44
## 19: Mississippi 40
## 20: Oklahoma 31
## 21: Wisconsin 31
## 22: Ohio 30
## 23: Florida 28
## 24: Kentucky 27
## 25: Kansas 26
## 26: Missouri 26
## 27: Alabama 25
## 28: New Hampshire 23
## 29: California 22
## 30: Idaho 22
## 31: Virginia 22
## 32: South Carolina 20
## 33: Tennessee 20
## 34: Arizona 19
## 35: Maine 17
## 36: New Mexico 17
## 37: Iowa 16
## 38: Minnesota 15
## 39: Puerto Rico 15
## 40: Oregon 13
## 41: Texas 13
## 42: North Carolina 12
## 43: Arkansas 11
## 44: Nebraska 11
## 45: North Dakota 11
## 46: Alaska 9
## 47: Hawaii 6
## 48: Montana 6
## 49: South Dakota 6
## 50: Utah 6
## 51: West Virginia 6
## 52: Wyoming 3
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsPerMillion
New deaths
Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
## state deathsNewPerMillion
## 1: New York 37
## 2: New Jersey 30
## 3: Connecticut 29
## 4: Louisiana 18
## 5: Massachusetts 17
## 6: Michigan 14
## 7: District of Columbia 10
## 8: Pennsylvania 8
## 9: Rhode Island 7
## 10: Illinois 6
## 11: Maryland 6
## 12: Georgia 4
## 13: Indiana 4
## 14: Colorado 3
## 15: Delaware 3
## 16: Ohio 3
## 17: Alabama 2
## 18: Florida 2
## 19: Idaho 2
## 20: Kansas 2
## 21: Mississippi 2
## 22: Missouri 2
## 23: Nevada 2
## 24: New Hampshire 2
## 25: Oklahoma 2
## 26: Virginia 2
## 27: Washington 2
## 28: Wisconsin 2
## 29: Arizona 1
## 30: California 1
## 31: Iowa 1
## 32: Kentucky 1
## 33: Maine 1
## 34: Minnesota 1
## 35: New Mexico 1
## 36: North Carolina 1
## 37: South Carolina 1
## 38: Tennessee 1
## 39: Texas 1
## 40: Vermont 1
## 41: Wyoming 1
## 42: Alaska 0
## 43: Arkansas 0
## 44: Hawaii 0
## 45: Montana 0
## 46: Nebraska 0
## 47: North Dakota 0
## 48: Oregon 0
## 49: Puerto Rico 0
## 50: South Dakota 0
## 51: Utah 0
## 52: West Virginia 0
## 53: American Samoa <NA>
## 54: Guam <NA>
## 55: Northern Mariana Islands <NA>
## 56: Virgin Islands <NA>
## state deathsNewPerMillion
Counties
- This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
- Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
- In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.
Confirmed cases
Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state casesPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 72,636 1 99
## 2: Rockland New York 26,011 2 99
## 3: Westchester New York 21,651 3 99
## 4: Blaine Idaho 20,112 4 99
## 5: Nassau New York 19,688 5 99
## 6: Davidson Tennessee 2,149 164 94
## 7: Richland South Carolina 1,318 353 88
## 8: Pierce Washington 1,136 422 86
## 9: York South Carolina 491 1086 65
## 10: Orange California 433 1230 60Our county percentiles over time 
Deaths
Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
## county state deathsPerMillion rawRanking percentile
## 1: New York New York 5,044 1 99
## 2: Terrell Georgia 1,289 2 99
## 3: Randolph Georgia 1,033 3 99
## 4: Dougherty Georgia 955 4 99
## 5: Nassau New York 948 5 99
## 6: Pierce Washington 31 599 80
## 7: Richland South Carolina 29 637 79
## 8: Davidson Tennessee 26 689 78
## 9: York South Carolina 11 974 69
## 10: Orange California 7 1028 67Our county percentiles over time 
Raw counts
- This section shows the raw counts over time for the U.S., our states, and our counties for four categories:
- Total confirmed cases: This is the cumulative total of cases reported.
- New confirmed cases: This is the number of new cases reported on each respective date.
- Total deaths: This is the cumulative total of deaths reported.
- New deaths: This is the number of new deaths reported on each respective date.
Total confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New confirmed cases
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Total deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
New deaths
U.S.
Our states
Our counties
Stay-at-home comparisons
- This section is a work in progress. It’s exploring what effect stay-at-home orders have on spread. It’s inherentely messy because some states have localized orders but not orders for their full state and because states implemented the orders at different times.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
- So far, this view doesn’t show if these orders are “working” or not. Instead, the biggest takeaway from the current plot is that the states that implemented orders are reacting to having worse spread, which is why the case rate is so much higher at the start for them. As a state decides it has a problem and implements an order, it joins the grouping of states with orders and drives the rate up for that group.
- Over time (if the policies work), what we’d expect is that the line for the group with orders flattens a bit, but we’ll see. It also may become moot if all states issue orders.
- The second plot is new and is attempting to track the progress normalized for how long each state has had the order. It shows the average of the ratio for each state of the new cases for any given day to the number of new cases on the day the order was enacted. If the orders are working, over time this line should come back down…but it isn’t there yet.
- The first plot shows a rolling 3-day average of new cases per million residents, averaged across 2 groups of states – those with a state-wide stay-at-home order in effect and those without. The size of the dots reflect the number of states in each group for each given day (so the dots are getting bigger over time for the group with orders, as more states implement those orders).
